Thursday, November 02, 2006

The Crystal Ball

I tend to get nervous about bold predictions of a Democratic tidal wave -- I remember the talk from 2004 a little too well. But Prof. Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia has a decent track record and he's worth listening to. Via TPM, his latest post is a doozy:
Just how Democratic a year is 2006?

Five days out, let's rephrase the question this way: when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?

We bet it's never happened before, and it certainly hasn't happened in the post-World War II era. After all, even when a party suffers miserable net losses, it usually picks up at least several consolation prizes in the form of open seat pickups or an against-the-tide incumbent defeat.

Yet look at our 2006 predictions: at this moment, the Crystal Ball cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office. Just imagine how devastating an absolute shutout would be in the eyes of history if this proves to be true!

Sure, we could easily be fooled by more than a few outcomes in this regard on Election Night, and we would probably place the odds of this historical unlikelihood's occurrence at no better than 50/50. But the very notion such a scenario is within the realm of possibilities is a testament to the lopsidedness of this year's theaters of battle.
Check out the rest of the post for his breakdown of all the races. Right now, he's predicting that the Democrats will pickup 6 seats in the Senate and 23 in the House and retake both chambers. Wow.

I'd love to believe him, but I'm going to be sweating out these last five days, waiting for the coincidental release of another Osama Bin Laden tape or the sudden discovery of stockpiles of sarin gas in downtown Baghdad.

This thing isn't over yet. No matter where you live, odds are good there's a tight House or Senate race nearby. See what you can do to get involved and get out the vote. Because I'd love nothing more than to hang a shutout on the GOP and really, really rub it in.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...


But let's also not forget the ugly spector of election day shenangigans.

Which could all-but spell the death of our republic in more ways than I can enumerate.

The most fucked-up thing is that intelligent people can engage in intelligent discussion and calmly address the very real possibility that the party in power will steal the election.

Even if all goes as hoped next week, it's gonna take us a long time to start climbing out of the morass we've been drowning in.

At this point, I just want my country back.